Saturday, February 10, 2007

尾牙談民進黨的正名



民進黨拼正名 李登輝暗批像納粹!

政府一連串積極正名的行動,看在向來倡導台灣正名的李前總統眼裡,卻是不以為然!晚間李前總統辦尾牙,他措詞嚴厲的說,最近有些人到了選舉才喊正名,相當危險,還暗批這樣的行為跟納粹和共產黨沒有兩樣! .. (TVBS 程沐真 報導)

Monday, February 5, 2007

時勢造英雄 - by Dr.Song

時勢造英雄

From “Taiwan Voice” by 宋泉盛 , Professor at School of Theology, UC Berkeley
(02/02/2007)

台灣的政爭進入一個撲朔迷離的狀況﹐誰是﹑誰非﹐誰是正人君子﹑誰是投機份子﹐誰說的是金玉良言﹑誰說的是妖言惑眾﹐令人「sa 無貓仔毛」(河洛話發音)。政治﹐不管是內政或外交﹐至少有檯面上的和檯面下的兩面﹐有表層的和深層的兩個層面。政治語言是富有玄機的語言﹐如果你沒有語意學的訓練﹐沒有語言心理學的造詣﹐休想進入政治旋渦裡。否則﹐你會很容易不是被對方的花言巧語擊得鼻青臉腫﹐便是被對方似是而非的歪理扔進對方設計的陷阱裡。

當前台灣的政壇會鬧得一塌糊塗﹐一方面是因為赤裸裸的認同之爭﹐一方面是因為權力之爭奪戰。當政治被這兩種政爭綁架﹐受害的是老百姓。保衛台灣安全的軍購案﹐甚至2007年的國家總預算案﹐不都在這種荒唐的政爭中擱置下來嗎﹖最致命的﹐是那一批口沫橫飛的中國國民黨國會議員和認中國為祖國的一些司法人員。他們的認同偏差得很離譜﹐從他們的言行一點看不出他們愛惜養育他們的台灣。他們不把台灣出賣給專制的共產中國不甘心。看到不少喝台灣這母親的奶水長大的台灣人甘願效忠敵視台灣人的親中政客﹐為他們效勞﹐實在情不自禁慨嘆﹐曰﹕恩斷情絕﹗

於是﹐誰在2008 年代表認同台灣的六成以上的老百姓來角逐總統大位的候選人變成格外重要的問題。我在不久前撰 《眾望所歸的總統侯選人》一文﹐將我初淺的看法公諸於世﹐供大家做參考。最近看到台灣政局面臨黎明前的黑暗﹐聽到關心台灣前景的國內外同鄉議論紛紛﹐我願意再就這個迫切的問題提出幾點看法﹐與大家共襄大事。

讀者一定知道﹐有一句成語叫做「時勢造英雄」。古往今來有哪一個時代﹑哪一個民族﹑哪一個國家﹐不是「時勢造英雄」的﹖古代馬其頓國王亞歷山大大帝(公元前356-323) 的崛起﹐不是「時勢造英雄」嗎﹖古羅馬的軍事家﹑政治家及歷史家凱撒皇帝(公元前100-144)﹐不是「時勢造英雄」嗎﹖美國獨立戰爭時期統帥美國軍隊贏得獨立後擔任美國第一任總統的華盛頓(1732-1799)﹐不是「時勢造英雄」嗎﹖我們不必說得那麼遠。第二次世界大戰期間領導英國抵制德國終於勝利的英國首相丘吉爾﹐不也是「時勢造英雄」嗎﹖

台灣當前的內外政治情勢正是「時勢造英雄」的大好時機。外面有獨裁專制的中華人民共和國威逼利誘要併吞台灣﹔內面有泛藍的親共政客背叛台灣﹑聯共制台﹐要達成中國統一台灣的柊極目標。泛綠民進黨高層人士賣國求榮的﹐也不是絕無僅有。在這樣草木皆兵的情勢中除非你「頭殼壞了」﹐還要勾心鬥角競選總統﹖你不如掛冠而去﹐含飴弄孫﹑安享天年。

這未必不是一種明哲保身的處世態度﹐但究竟是消極的﹑頹唐的﹑自私的處世態度。假如天下都是這樣的小聰明人﹐我們的世界﹑我們的國家﹑我們的社會﹐不曉得會變成甚麼樣子﹖一定會變成居心叵測﹑唯恐天下不亂的政治流氓興風作浪的世界﹑國家和社會。我相信我們沒有人願意看到我們疼惜的台灣變成這樣的世界﹑這樣的國家﹑這樣的社會。

我認為﹐因為台灣面臨動蕩不安﹑風雨飄搖的政治局面﹐所以是「時勢造英雄」的絕佳時候。我們知道﹐雄心勃勃的人躍躍欲試﹐自命不凡的人在那裡磨拳擦掌。更有心中有數的政客招搖過市﹐口是心非﹐討好﹑欺騙選民。他們都可以去賣黨產或傾家蕩產試試﹐看看他們的總統夢會不會成真。但是﹐我可以斷言﹐他們必定不是台灣在現階段所需要的識時務的英雄。

這個敏感的時刻我們不願意指名道性﹐說﹐誰是2008年台灣的時勢所需要的政治人物。我沒有奢望﹐在近一兩年台灣會出現類似英國丘吉爾首相這樣的政治人物﹐但我還是要再列舉2008年總統候選人應具備的幾個條件 : 愛惜自由﹑民主﹑獨立的台灣老百姓心目中的總統候選人不能或缺的基本素質。

2008年「時勢造英雄」的總統候選人﹐第一﹐是具有不能動搖的台灣本土意識的人﹐即使是九二一大地震也不能動搖他。第二﹐是不遺餘力捍衛台灣獨立的人﹐深信這是他的天職。第三﹐是為自由﹑民主﹑獨立的台灣勇往直前的人﹐相信台灣在國際上贏得一席之地才能又營造經濟奇跡。第四﹐是肯與挺台灣﹑顧大局的老百姓站在同一陣線上的人﹐願意與台灣的獨立自主拼命的台灣人同甘共苦。第五﹐是具有喝退政治歪門邪道的道德魄力的人﹐締造台灣清明的新氣象。第六﹐是不玩弄政治把戲﹐不做出親痛仇快的政治妥協的人﹐引領台灣人走出過街老鼠的的悲慘命運。第七﹐是以做台灣人為榮﹑說台灣話為傲﹑努力發揚光大台灣文化﹑習俗的人﹐正正堂堂﹑快快樂樂與台灣大眾文化打成一片。第八﹐是具有過人的政治膽量的人﹐不推卸責任﹑敢做敢當。第九﹐是能辨認敵我的政治智慧的人﹐不認賊做父也不認賊為子。第十﹐是具有堅定的心靈力量﹐願為台灣光明的遠景打拼的人﹐仰不愧於天﹑俯不怍於人。

這樣的總統候選人是不是比緣木求魚還難﹖誰說不難﹖可是﹐2008年當台灣的民選總統簡直不是當輕鬆郊遊的領隊那麼一回事。這是一條坎坷的道路﹑一種驚險的使命。正因為如此﹐我要直言﹐當前的台灣是「時勢造英雄」的絕好時機。誰是這位英雄﹖讓我們拭目以待吧。

Thursday, February 1, 2007

李登輝時代的結束

<澄社評論>李登輝時代的結束

■ 徐永明 (作者為中研院人文社會研究中心助理研究員)

最近前總統李登輝先後接受兩家有香港資本主導媒體的專訪,表達自己不是「台獨教主」,甚至認為目前台灣追求獨立是危險的,這些說法一出自然在台灣淺薄的政壇掀起漣漪,一副政治勢力要大重組的樣子,許多政治人物惶惶不可終日,不是加以附和,就是含淚不解。

其實,當李前總統再一次否定自己,將統獨立場還原到十年前尚未總統直選,作為蔣經國接班人的李登輝的反獨立場時,台灣政治史上李登輝時代已經宣告終結了。這裡有一個政治人物的衰敗過程,有一個政黨的改名徬徨,甚至牽動二○○八年各總統候選人的政治位置。君不見國民黨主席馬英九興奮接招,以為李登輝的統獨大逆轉,是天上掉下來的禮物。

這樣的搖擺心情,都忽視了台灣民主的成熟度:台灣民眾已經學到夠多的教訓了,也已經有自信透過選票來懲罰善變投機的政治人物,宋楚瑜就是一個清楚的例子。從宋省長的數百萬選票,宋總統候選人的幾乎當選,到連宋配的扼腕,最後台北市長選舉的五萬票。是台灣民眾太善變嗎?還是台灣的民主,已經成熟到要開始檢驗政治人物的立場一致了。

曾經與宋楚瑜情同父子的李登輝,正歷經同樣的證道過程,這也是台灣民主發展的戲劇性案例。號稱台灣民主先生的李登輝,正透過自己本身的政治操弄,再一次警惕台灣政治人物關於誠信的重要。這時台灣的選民是要積極扮演角色的,因為唯有透過結束李登輝的時代,才能掀開台灣民主政治的新頁,進入一個選民監督政治人物,而非被反向操弄的自主民主。

拉長歷史來看,從民主辯證的高度鳥瞰,李登輝的確是撐起台灣民主的眾多支柱之一,但到了這個關鍵時期,考驗台灣民眾的是:必須擺脫從眾的心態,唯有親手推倒民主強人的巨大雕像,台灣才有走出洞穴陰影,直接面對民主挑戰的一天。

從這個民主重建的角度,來解讀李登輝轉向的歷史貢獻,可能遺憾就不會太多,對台灣民主信心也更堅定。

*** 原載自由時報

Wednesday, January 31, 2007

李登輝的深沉算盤 [好文共想/享]

台灣不可能由民進黨一黨長期執政,台灣未來的政黨輪替是要由泛藍與泛綠來輪替嗎?那台灣豈不大亂,教科書要改來改去嗎?護照加註要換來換去嗎?九二共識到底是有共識還是沒共識要變來變去嗎?

作者:巴布
原載於東森部落格 - 註一:參見「李登輝強調非台獨 大力主張開放中資 還想走訪大陸」 http://www.ettoday.com/2007/01/31/11342-2048627.htm


民進黨執政後,在台聯創立要走台獨深綠路線時,由陳水扁掌權的民進黨就需要往中間靠攏,這是執政黨的責任,也是李登輝為台灣所定下的戰略,但民進黨在無準備下執政後,為確保其執政的權力和利益,完全與創黨理想愈走愈遠,罔顧轉型正義,讓台灣社會無和解共生的基礎,只一昧的牽就政治現實,在各種政治勢力間搖擺,意圖左右逢源。結果是既沒和解也無法共生,造成的是台灣人民的失望以及對本土政權的嚴重傷害。甚至在2005年的三合一選舉時陳水扁在自己執政不力,無法開拓中間選民票源的情況下,陳水扁一個回馬槍回過頭來搶了深綠的票,台聯應狀大而未果,民進黨自己則灰頭土臉,陳水扁完全打亂了李登輝的佈局和苦心,這是陳水扁和民進黨對台灣最大的罪過。   

如今單一選區兩票制選舉在即,台聯正要泡沫化,台灣兩黨競爭型態即將形成,民進黨和國民黨會是未來的兩大黨嗎?台灣不可能由民進黨一黨長期執政,台灣未來的政黨輪替是要由泛藍與泛綠來輪替嗎?那台灣豈不大亂,教科書要改來改去嗎?護照加註要換來換去嗎?九二共識到底是有共識還是沒共識要變來變去嗎?…答案是當然不行。台灣獨立趨勢已成(有62%的台灣人民自認其為台灣人),民進黨不想走到中間,那走在中間的黨得要由一個不是深藍的黨來擔綱,以進行必要的政黨輪替,未來的台灣才不會大亂,因為現在的中國國民黨已是個被深藍所綁架的黨,這個中間路線的開拓者,就是新繼任台聯黨主席黃崑輝宣佈將改走中間偏左路線的「台灣民主社會黨」。

其背後影武者李登輝並重新定調自己的立場,強調沒有必要追求台獨,他不是台獨教父,甚至說台灣早就主權獨立,何必再追求台獨,再說下去只會讓台灣「降格」的言語等等,都是為了要使政黨轉型爭取中間選票,成為一個真正中間偏左照顧弱勢的政黨,李登輝說他不是台獨200次有多少人會信?(一如馬英九如果說他不是統一又有多少人能信?)李登輝拋出此一議題是要激發台灣人思考:誰會是那個中間偏右強調經濟發展的政黨?會是目前執政的民進黨嗎?民進黨會願意且有能力來扮演這一角色嗎?難不成會是一新興政黨嗎?如此,台灣社會即可跳脫藍綠的思維,在兩個台獨黨(明獨與暗獨)之間進行選擇以落實民主。

李登輝主張鼓勵開放大陸外資及觀光,他批評民進黨政府朝夕令改,結果造成台灣與中國經貿失衡,不但流失資金、人才和技術,也影響到老百姓的生活(註一),難不成李登輝也要同時扮演那個中間偏右強調經濟發展的政黨嗎?在台灣獨立鞏固的大藍圖尚未落實前,希望李登輝能活到百二十歲,是台灣之幸,但在那之前,希望民進黨好好跟李登輝談一下,如何為台灣各自扮演好正當的角色,在排深藍的基礎上分進合擊,擴大票源到70~80%以上。

Monday, January 22, 2007

當前台灣四惡共生的亂象

< 好文共享>

「四惡共生」的國會亂象

何榮幸2007-01-23 08:15 中時

立法院沈淪至此,藍綠「雙惡共生」已不足以形容其墮落,加上選民漠視、媒體失職所構成的「四惡共生」,才是國會結構性腐爛根源。選民不覺悟,媒體不提升,別想奢望藍綠政黨會走回正途,國會亂象仍會繼續躍上CNN成為國際笑柄。

民進黨立委這回竟然用上「機車大鎖加快乾膠」奧步 (: 台語發音),讓國會議長無法進入議場主持議事。這已經不是尊不尊重國會多數的問題,而是執政黨有沒有基本格調的寫照。經此一役,民進黨在二00八之前做為「比爛政黨」的格局幾已蓋棺論定。

當年朱高正在萬年國會時代大鬧議場,的確是威權體制下反對黨不得不然的抗爭手段;但民進黨在民主時代仍以非理性方式抗爭,實已超越「朝小野大」結構下的合理杯葛尺度。執政黨不帶頭反省,藍綠「雙惡共生」將永無寧日。

民進黨當家鬧事卻一副理直氣壯,原因是國親兩黨並未承擔國會多數的應有責任。看看國親立委主導的本會期最後一次院會議程,前三案都是極具爭議法案,中央政府總預算卻排在第二十八案,就知道國親兩黨多麼不在乎公共利益了。

國民黨有失最大在野黨職責的証據,更在於馬英九一再倡言推動的「十全大補帖」陽光、民生法案,沒有一案被真正排入優先議程;國親聯盟談的永遠都是立委提名分配而非具體落實改革,難怪國親同樣穩居「雙惡共生」的一端而無法卸責。

如果只談「雙惡共生」而不談選民、媒體責任,那才是各打五十大板。藍綠立委如此惡鬥仍有峙無恐,最大原因在於選民的泛政治化與健忘。泛政治化讓朝野政黨可以在選前輕易轉移焦點,健忘則讓選民太容易原諒立委諸公的墮落行徑。

選民如果不能真正就事論事,則立委平日問政表現根本無關宏旨。只要藍綠陣營在選前祭起「愛台灣」、「反台獨」、「中共同路人」等意識型態大旗,藍綠選民照樣自動歸隊。只要這樣的選舉方式有效,藍綠立委就不可能真正改變惡鬥格局。

至於媒體的嚴重失職,則明顯表現在八卦化與偽善這兩個面向。電子媒體近年來報導國會新聞的八卦化、花絮化走向,早已讓「三寶」式立委大行其道,認真問政的立委根本上不了鏡頭,辛苦三年還不如朝王金平丟一隻鞋子來得風光。

媒體在批判朝野政黨與立委諸公時,總是要求政治人物「拿出牛肉」、「推動改革」,但等到藍綠陣營真的端出公共政策,卻往往被媒體棄之如蔽屣,改革議題也總是被無聊政治口水、藍綠天王動向所淹沒。就此而言,媒體確實是國會亂象的「共犯結構」。

想要徹底改變「四惡共生」國會亂象,藍綠陣營、選民、媒體這四端的反躬自省皆不可少。民間團體最近再度組成國會監督聯盟,希望這回不要只是三分鐘熱度,能夠以此為基點擴散監督國會的力道,讓「四惡共生」的惡性循環出現解套的契機。

引用:http://editorland.chinatimes.com/ho/archive/2007/01/23/3041.html

Saturday, January 20, 2007

台灣現況

The State of Nation - 本文是以美國為例.

I hope someone in Taiwan can write an article on the state of Taiwan like Mr. David Wallechinsky did on Parade every year. In the followings, I have summarized Mr. Wallechinsky’s article in simple outlines:

United State of American is leading all nations in:

  1. Military: There are 460,000 armed forces stationed abroad in 144 countries. US has most advanced weapons and more deliverable nuclear weapons than anyone else.
  2. Economy: GDP is the highest in the world ($13.3 trillion) and has largest gold reserved (about $158 billion). US have 371 billionaires.
  3. Energy Consumption: Leads all nations in consumption of oil (1/4 of annual supply). Lead in usage of nuclear energy.
  4. Internet Users: 205,327,000 and counting.
  5. Highway Road: 3.98 million miles.
  6. Healthcare Cost: Highest among nations, $5,700 per year. But we are lag in doctors, high in infant deaths (No. 34 in rank of infant surviving).

Other areas that are lagging:

  1. Crime: Highest per capita rate of people in prison. 15th highest in murder rate.
  2. Women in national legislatures: There are 71 countries do better than US.
  3. Voting: The eligible citizen who voted, US is 138th of 172 nations.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Updates on Taiwan

Newnations.com has just published updates on Taiwan. The following is the summary of their updates (Update No. 34 - 02/01/07). For more detail information about their survey and observation, please go to their website.

Taiwan : JANUARY 2007 An end of year review


All things considered, Taiwan has weathered the past year rather well and better than many had expected. As has been the case in other parts of Asia, the economy has steamed ahead largely ignoring the shenanigans of the political class. The smart money suggests a similar picture for next year.

Taiwan's export-driven (at least in large part) growth has benefited from the better than expected performance of the US economy (which will come in at around 3.2 percent for 2006) and the continued surge of China. The Chinese economy will likely grow by a further 10.5 percent this year after recording 9.9 percent growth last year.

The ongoing strong demand for Taiwan's manufactures translates to domestic economic growth this year of around 4.1 percent. With the upcoming Chinese Olympics looming ever closer, export demand is expected to remain robust next year and well into 2008.

So far, we have given out the good news. Now for the bad news: It has not been a good year politically for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party nor especially for President Chen Shui-bian whose wife was recently indicted on one count of fraud.

Taiwan's political system remains as rambunctious as ever and for much of the year President Chen Shui-bian and his senior DPP leaders have remained in a veritable state of political siege engendered by internal rifts and factionalism within the party and by allegations of corruption in high places that the opposition forces led by a renascent Kuomintang (KMT) under presidential aspirant and party Chair, Ma Ying-jeou, have been eager to exploit. Fresh attempts to impeach the President have so far come to nothing but have led to paralysis in much of government and especially in the government's legislative programme where the opposition has opposed simply for the sake of opposition without weighing the merits of the case. In that, of course, there is nothing new.

But even here there may be a silver lining to the dark political clouds hanging over Taipei and it may be found in the electorate at large. The results of the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral polls held on December 9th, took many by surprise.

A growing electoral maturity?

The DPP hierarchy will be breathing a collective sigh of relief that the mayoral elections maintained the balance of power between the two major parties. The KMT held onto the Taipei mayorship (but with a reduced vote) while the DPP won unexpectedly in Kaohsiung in a cliff-hanger contest that had earlier been deemed impossible to win.

Given the wide expectation that the election outcome would see a further repudiation of DPP politicians by the electorate for their perceived failures and links to corruption scandals, the electorate proved to be unusually forgiving (or, perhaps, more discerning than many had thought).

In Taipei, the DPP pitched former Kaohsiung mayor, former premier and DPP stalwart Frank Hsieh against the KMT candidate Hau Lung-bin (Hau Lung-pin), a former head of Taiwan's environmental protection administration (EPA) who has vowed to develop Taipei into a city that foreigners would find comfortable to live in. Prior to returning to politics to contest the mayoral race, Mr. Hau was secretary-general of Taiwan's Red Cross Society.

Mr. Hsieh is generally regarded to have run a lack-lustre contest and while he was bested by his opponent, he did succeed in cutting significantly the margin of victory as compared to previous contests. He lifted the DPP vote by a full 5 percent as compared to the 2002 result.

He also succeeded in vanquishing a strong "third contender". This was no less than James Soong, popular former Taiwan governor (from the days when Taiwan also had a provincial government as well as a national one-a fiction dismantled by former president Lee Teng-hui). Soong and his People First Party (PFP) secured barely 4 percent of the vote. It was a humiliating defeat and upon hearing the result, Mr. Soong announced his retirement from political life. Without him, his political party will not survive long. His party's legislators-having lost their chief financier-have little option but to return to the KMT fold from whence they came.

The other minor party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), appears headed the same way. Its candidates performed miserably both in Taipei and in Kaohsiung.

Clearly, the signal from the end of year elections is that voters are becoming tired of the splintered political system and minor parties that appear to be personality-based without a clearly defined platform of coherent issues relevant to the broader electorate. Taiwan appears headed towards a clear two-party political system in future elections.

A parallel message is the eschewing of extremist positions. Both major parties are now converging towards the centre and middle-of-the-road politics. With the demise of the minor (and more extremist parties) they have more freedom to manoeuvre. This has to be good news for the future of Taiwan.

Calmer waters ahead?


The outcome of the December elections, which commanded as much attention as recent national polls-such was their significance-should provide some respite to Taiwan's embattled president. The result demonstrates that allegations of corruption in high places have lost persuasive power with Taiwan's voters.

Mr. Chen has survived three recall motions in the Legislative Yuan (Taiwan's unicameral parliament) and in recent months, close aides as well as family members have been linked to corruption scandals. His wife has been indicted on one charge. Nevertheless, corruption has also hounded the opposition KMT and if mud stuck, it has done so on both sides of the political fence.

But President Chen's relief is only temporary and he remains in a precarious position. Should the corruption charge facing Mr. Chen's wife be proven in court, then the pressures surrounding the president could once again come to the boil forcing his early resignation. Barring this development it is widely expected that he will remain in office to the end of his term in 2008.

Next year (2007), Taiwan will return to the polls for a new legislature and for a new president to take office in 2008. The coming year will therefore again see politics playing a large role in Taiwan's life. The difference, however, is that both major parties appear to have consolidated their core basis of support. The result of coming elections will therefore hinge on the middle-ground swinging voters. Expect both parties to pay special attention to wooing the middle ground. This factor alone will moderate the extremist policy stances taken by both the KMT and the DPP in earlier elections.

Already speculation is rife as to who will be the contenders for the 2008 presidential race. This time it looks likely to be a two-horse race and for the KMT, former Taipei mayor (and current party chair) Ma Ying-jeou appears the favoured candidate. On the part of the DPP, four party leaders appear to be contending the selection process. These include Vice-president Annette Lu (who remains the favoured candidate) together with Premier Su Tseng-chang, party Chair Yu Shyi-kun and former Kaohsiung mayor Frank Hsieh.

It needs to be remembered that in the two previous presidential contests, President Chen Shui-bian emerged the winner with a minority of the vote because the conservative vote was split between rival candidates. This time, in a two-way play-off, the DPP will find the race that much harder to win. At this stage, the smart money would be on Ma Ying-jeou as Taiwan's next president.

And what about the economy?


Most analysts predict not much change in the domestic economy next year although there are signs that Taiwan is becoming a more attractive destination for private equity placements.

Taiwan's GDP growth for 2007 is generally expected to remain within the band between 4.0 and 4.6 percent. The Council for Economic Planning and Development has announced a target (not necessarily of course the same as an "expectation") of 4.6 percent for next year while Goldman Sachs puts their expectation at 4.5 percent. The Chunghwa Institute for Economic Research (CIER) is opting for a more conservative figure of 4.13 percent while the Economist Intelligence Unit predicts 4.2 percent GDP growth.

MasterCard Worldwide caused some furore recently when it announced an expectation that was far removed from other estimates. MasterCard is forecasting that Taiwan's economic growth next year will be only 1.2 percent.

In defending its low forecast MasterCard pointed to weak domestic consumption and slowing growth in Taiwan's two major trading partners-China and the United States. Other observers dispute this pessimistic stance and point out that while consumer demand has weakened in the aftermath of the consumer loan crisis that affected the banking system earlier in the year, the public at large continues to spend.

CIER expects private consumption to increase by 1.5 percent next year while the CPI will increase by 0.72 percent. The unemployment rate for the year is forecast to be 3.92 percent. Generally most observers believe the MasterCard estimate to be unduly pessimistic.

Taiwan continues to benefit from private equity inflows


According to US investment banker, Merrill Lynch "Asia's private equity boom looks like it is a long way from fizzling out". Taiwan is well placed to benefit from the investment drive. Given benchmark interest rates of round 2.2 percent and yields in excess of 4.5 percent, a large number of Taiwanese companies appear to be potential investment targets according to the banker. One indicator of the attractiveness of the island's companies is the offer on November 24 by Washington-based Carlyle to buy out Advanced Semiconductor and Engineering, the world's largest chip tester and packager. If consummated the deal could reach US$5.46 billion making it the largest ever acquisition in Taiwan. Other key acquisition targets include Taiwan's telecom, technology, cement and transport companies.